Millwall 3-1 Preston North End — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.59
Over
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.41
2-3
43%
1.78
4-5
18%
4.97
6+
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.69
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.5
X/1
15%
3.97
X/2
12%
7.43
X/X
15%
4.05
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
12%
6.41
2/X
7%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.4pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Preston North End EU Bookmakers 28%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.24/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.13
-9% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +32%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
322 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 70%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
23.7 Crosses 15.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Preston North End
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.93 xG 1.05
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
284 Passes 337
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2024 Millwall Millwall 1-1 HT 1-1 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
21.10.2023 Preston North End Preston North End 1-1 HT 1-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
15.04.2023 Millwall Millwall 2-0 HT 1-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
12.11.2022 Preston North End Preston North End 2-4 HT 2-2 Millwall Millwall İNCL
15.04.2022 Preston North End Preston North End 1-1 HT 1-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
01.02.2022 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Preston North End Preston North End İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
3-1
AWAY Preston North End
2.63 xG 1.14
36% Ball Possession 64%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
212 Passes 417
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Preston North End
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall saw off Preston North End 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Millwall as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millwall had 36% of the ball to Preston North End's 64%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.63 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millwall had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Millwall and 0.83 for Preston North End.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Preston North End?

Millwall 3-1 Preston North End in the England - Championship on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Preston North End?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Millwall 43%, draw 28%, Preston North End 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millwall) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Millwall) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNCL More England - Championship
28 Sep 2024
14:30 Blackburn Rovers vs Queens Park Rangers Analysis →
14:30 Derby County vs Norwich City Analysis →
14:30 Sheffield Wednesday vs West Bromwich Analysis →
17:00 Portsmouth vs Sheffield United Analysis →
17:00 Leeds United vs Coventry Analysis →
17:00 Watford vs Sunderland Analysis →