Chelsea 4-2 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
25%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.36
2-3 Goals
37%
1.99
4-5 Goals
25%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
6.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.21
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.42
X/2
9%
9.0
X/X
11%
6.22
2/1
8%
20.05
2/2
10%
5.88
2/X
7%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.6pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
2.02/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.58
-2% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
394 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
18.5 Crosses 15.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.44 xG 1.82
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
367 Passes 461
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
23 Box Touches 38
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.05.2024 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-2 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
03.12.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 3-2 HT 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
27.09.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-0 HT 0-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNLK
23.07.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 4-3 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion HAZPL
15.04.2023 Chelsea Chelsea 1-2 HT 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
29.10.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 4-1 HT 3-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
4-2
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
4.16 xG 1.11
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
288 Passes 476
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
27 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea got the better of Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Chelsea had 41% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 59%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 4.16 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelsea had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Chelsea and 2.00 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Chelsea 4-2 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 50%, draw 25%, Brighton & Hove Albion 25%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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