Utebo 4-2 Real Sociedad III — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.45
Draw
31%
3.94
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.68
Over
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.33
No
52%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
41%
4-5
19%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
64%
-12.9pp
30%
Draw
22%
+8.7pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+4.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
39%
+9.0pp
52%
BTTS No
61%
-9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utebo EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad III EU Bookmakers 17%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.76/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.35
+2% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
426 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 10.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utebo
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Real Sociedad III
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.03.2024 Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III 0-0 HT 0-0 Utebo Utebo İS4
12.11.2023 Utebo Utebo 3-1 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III İS4
22.01.2023 Utebo Utebo 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III İS4
04.09.2022 Real Sociedad III Real Sociedad III 1-1 HT 1-0 Utebo Utebo İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utebo
4-2
AWAY Real Sociedad III
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 9
11 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Utebo vs Real Sociedad III
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utebo saw off Real Sociedad III 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Utebo as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Utebo had 60% of the ball to Real Sociedad III's 40%, shots finished 21-9.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Utebo had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Utebo and 0.50 for Real Sociedad III.

What was the final score of Utebo vs Real Sociedad III?

Utebo 4-2 Real Sociedad III in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utebo vs Real Sociedad III?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utebo win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Utebo 51%, draw 30%, Real Sociedad III 18%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utebo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Utebo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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