Viktoria Köln 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
3.0
6+ Goals
12%
9.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
4.36
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
23.6
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
11%
6.71
X/2
11%
5.1
X/X
8%
5.14
2/1
5%
29.5
2/2
20%
2.97
2/X
8%
12.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.6 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
32%
+6.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.0pp
38%
Away Win
43%
-4.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Viktoria Köln EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 46%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.43/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.82
+11% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -35%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
242 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 79%
12.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.4 Crosses 30.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Viktoria Köln
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 0-1 Viktoria Köln Viktoria Köln AL3
14.10.2023 Viktoria Köln Viktoria Köln 2-2 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
29.04.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 HT 0-1 Viktoria Köln Viktoria Köln AL3
05.11.2022 Viktoria Köln Viktoria Köln 3-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Viktoria Köln
2-0
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
312 Passes 405
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
9 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Viktoria Köln vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Viktoria Köln beat Erzgebirge Aue 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Viktoria Köln found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Viktoria Köln had 44% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 56%, shots finished 6-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Viktoria Köln and 1.25 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Viktoria Köln vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Viktoria Köln 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Viktoria Köln vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Viktoria Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Viktoria Köln 38%, draw 24%, Erzgebirge Aue 38%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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