Spennymoor Town 1-0 Chorley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
34%
Away Win
34%
-0.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spennymoor Town EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Chorley EU Bookmakers 38%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
0.48/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.50
-69% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / -4%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
303 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spennymoor Town
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Chorley
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2024 Chorley Chorley 2-1 HT 0-1 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
30.12.2023 Chorley Chorley 1-0 HT 1-0 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
26.12.2023 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Chorley Chorley İCON
04.03.2023 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 2-1 HT 2-1 Chorley Chorley İCON
08.11.2022 Chorley Chorley 2-0 HT 1-0 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town İCON
07.05.2022 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
POST-MATCH Spennymoor Town vs Chorley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spennymoor Town squeezed past Chorley 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Spennymoor Town as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chorley led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Spennymoor Town and 1.33 for Chorley.

What was the final score of Spennymoor Town vs Chorley?

Spennymoor Town 1-0 Chorley in the England - FA Cup on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spennymoor Town vs Chorley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spennymoor Town win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Spennymoor Town 41%, draw 26%, Chorley 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spennymoor Town), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spennymoor Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FAK More England - FA Cup
28 Sep 2024
00:00 Carshalton Athletic vs Melksham Town Analysis →
14:30 Wythenshawe vs Farsley AFC Analysis →
17:00 Rylands vs Scarborough Athletic Analysis →
17:00 Leiston vs AFC Hornchurch Analysis →
17:00 Gorleston vs St. Albans City Analysis →
17:00 Bishops Stortford vs Hereford FC Analysis →