Caernarfon Town 3-1 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
41%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.43
No
46%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
5.51
2-3 Goals
39%
2.01
4-5 Goals
25%
2.66
6+ Goals
9%
6.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
37%
-5.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.6pp
41%
Away Win
39%
+2.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
66%
-11.9pp
46%
BTTS No
34%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -4%
1.68/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.63
+38% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +75%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Connahs Quay
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-2 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALLK
15.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
02.02.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
27.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 6-1 HT 5-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
14.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-1 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALWK
01.09.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-4 HT 0-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town saw off Connahs Quay 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Connahs Quay at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Caernarfon Town and 3.17 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay?

Caernarfon Town 3-1 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 31%, draw 28%, Connahs Quay 41%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Connahs Quay) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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