Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Connahs Quay v Caernarfon Town — Team-Based Signals
Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
6-1
HT 5-0
Caernarfon Town
GAL
4-1
HT 2-0
Caernarfon Town
GALWK
0-4
HT 0-1
Connahs Quay
GAL
3-3
HT 0-1
Caernarfon Town
GAL
Connahs Quay 3-2 Caernarfon Town — Actual Match Statistics
Connahs Quay squeezed past Caernarfon Town 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Connahs Quay as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Connahs Quay had 44% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 56%, shots finished 8-13.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Connahs Quay and 1.33 for Caernarfon Town.
What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?
Connahs Quay 3-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - League Cup on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?
Before kick-off our model rated a Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 44%, draw 31%, Caernarfon Town 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Connahs Quay) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.