Connahs Quay 3-2 Caernarfon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - League Cup, 17 Sep 2024

📅17/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
25%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
18%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.1pp
31%
Draw
24%
+6.4pp
25%
Away Win
29%
-4.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.7pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 32%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/2.81
+0% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -38%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
346 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Connahs Quay
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Caernarfon Town
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.03.2024 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 2-1 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
02.02.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
27.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 6-1 HT 5-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
14.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-1 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALWK
01.09.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-4 HT 0-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
18.11.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-3 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Connahs Quay
3-2
AWAY Caernarfon Town
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Connahs Quay squeezed past Caernarfon Town 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Connahs Quay as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Connahs Quay had 44% of the ball to Caernarfon Town's 56%, shots finished 8-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Connahs Quay and 1.33 for Caernarfon Town.

What was the final score of Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?

Connahs Quay 3-2 Caernarfon Town in the Wales - League Cup on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Connahs Quay vs Caernarfon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Connahs Quay 44%, draw 31%, Caernarfon Town 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Connahs Quay) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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