Penybont 1-0 Haverfordwest County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - League Cup, 17 Sep 2024

📅17/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
20%
3.54
Away
32%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.68
Over 2.5
50%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
3%
1/X
3%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-3.2pp
20%
Draw
25%
-5.5pp
32%
Away Win
23%
+8.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Haverfordwest County EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
369 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Haverfordwest County
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
6 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2024 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 0-0 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
21.04.2024 Penybont Penybont 1-0 HT 1-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
08.03.2024 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 0-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
17.10.2023 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County 3-2 HT 3-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
18.08.2023 Penybont Penybont 2-0 HT 1-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County GAL
04.07.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-0 Haverfordwest County Haverfordwest County HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penybont
1-0
AWAY Haverfordwest County
41% Ball Possession 59%
5 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Haverfordwest County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont edged past Haverfordwest County 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Penybont had 41% of the ball to Haverfordwest County's 59%, shots finished 5-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Penybont and 0.50 for Haverfordwest County.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Haverfordwest County?

Penybont 1-0 Haverfordwest County in the Wales - League Cup on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Haverfordwest County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Penybont 49%, draw 20%, Haverfordwest County 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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