Malmö FF 3-2 IFK Varnamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
70%
1.22
Draw
16%
5.71
Away
14%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
38%
2.96
Over
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.82
No
42%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
19%
6.96
2-3
40%
2.22
4-5
29%
2.5
6+
12%
4.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.34
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
22.55
X/1
24%
3.99
X/2
5%
24.7
X/X
7%
10.05
2/1
9%
20.45
2/2
6%
19.95
2/X
4%
27.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.45 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Malmö FF win — 70%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
70%
Home Win
77%
-7.8pp
16%
Draw
14%
+1.6pp
14%
Away Win
8%
+6.1pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.1pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
51%
+6.7pp
42%
BTTS No
49%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 11%
-3% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +15%
2.06/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.59
+0% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +31%
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
514 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 76%
39.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
24.1 Crosses 14.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malmö FF
3W-3D-0L
AWAY IFK Varnamo
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.62 xG 0.97
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
512 Passes 298
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
38 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
15.05.2025 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 2-2 HT 1-2 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
06.10.2024 Malmö FF Malmö FF 1-1 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
15.04.2024 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-4 HT 0-2 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
31.07.2023 Malmö FF Malmö FF 3-1 HT 1-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
10.06.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-3 HT 1-1 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
09.10.2022 Malmö FF Malmö FF 0-0 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malmö FF
3-2
AWAY IFK Varnamo
1.79 xG 0.94
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 0
375 Passes 406
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
31 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Malmö FF vs IFK Varnamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malmö FF squeezed past IFK Varnamo 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Malmö FF as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Malmö FF had 50% of the ball to IFK Varnamo's 50%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.79 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malmö FF had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Malmö FF and 0.83 for IFK Varnamo.

What was the final score of Malmö FF vs IFK Varnamo?

Malmö FF 3-2 IFK Varnamo in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malmö FF vs IFK Varnamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Malmö FF 70%, draw 16%, IFK Varnamo 14%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Malmö FF), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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