St. Truidense 1-2 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.95
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.55
1/2
6%
22.55
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
12%
6.86
X/2
11%
5.14
X/X
9%
5.31
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
29.0
2/2
22%
2.91
2/X
8%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+7.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-6.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.1pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Truidense EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 49%
-6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +10%
1.78/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.35
-15% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
331 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 79%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
20.5 Crosses 17.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Truidense
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Genk
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.39 xG 1.83
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
325 Passes 414
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.01.2025 St. Truidense St. Truidense 0-4 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEK
01.12.2024 St. Truidense St. Truidense 2-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
20.10.2024 Genk Genk 3-2 HT 3-1 St. Truidense St. Truidense BEL
28.01.2024 St. Truidense St. Truidense 1-1 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
24.09.2023 Genk Genk 3-3 HT 0-3 St. Truidense St. Truidense BEL
05.03.2023 St. Truidense St. Truidense 2-2 HT 1-1 Genk Genk BEL
POST-MATCH St. Truidense vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk edged past St. Truidense 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; Genk found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for St. Truidense and 2.50 for Genk.

What was the final score of St. Truidense vs Genk?

St. Truidense 1-2 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Truidense vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated an Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split St. Truidense 37%, draw 24%, Genk 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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