NEC Nijmegen 2-1 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 28 Sep 2025

NEC Nijmegen
2-1 HT 1-0
AZ Alkmaar
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒13:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
47%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under
36%
2.61
Over Pick
64%
1.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.39
No
37%
2.77
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2-3
38%
4-5
28%
6+
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.55
1/2 ✗
8%
19.8
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
10%
7.48
X/2
17%
5.21
X/X
11%
6.39
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
22%
2.63
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.8 — our 8% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

NEC Nijmegen v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME NEC Nijmegen The Market 34%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar The Market 50%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Weak Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Weak
1.40 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.39
1.40 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.22
Weak Attackvs comparable teams Average
Average Defensevs comparable teams Average
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
19.6 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.85 xG 1.48
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
318 Passes 459
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 38
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.03.2025 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-3 HT 1-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
17.08.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
28.04.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
06.12.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
29.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 1-2 HT 0-2 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
21.05.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-3 HT 0-2 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL

NEC Nijmegen 2-1 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
263 Passes 348
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 13
REVIEW NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

NEC Nijmegen shaded a tight game against AZ Alkmaar 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

A gentle 47% lean on AZ Alkmaar didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (63%) came in.

The match data tells the story: NEC Nijmegen had 45% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 55%, shots finished 14-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.00 for AZ Alkmaar.

NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Result & Final Score

NEC Nijmegen 2-1 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

NEC Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 31%, draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar 47%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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