Nacional Asuncion 3-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.56
Over 2.5
50%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
11%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-1.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
60%
-10.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
40%
+10.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.0pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional Asuncion EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 36%
+0% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -20%
1.17/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.44
-6% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional Asuncion
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Libertad
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.07.2025 Libertad Libertad 0-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
12.04.2025 Libertad Libertad 1-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
30.01.2025 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 0-3 HT 0-3 Libertad Libertad PAR
30.09.2024 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion 2-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
29.07.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-2 HT 0-1 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
22.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 5-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Asuncion Nacional Asuncion PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional Asuncion
3-1
AWAY Libertad
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 1
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional Asuncion got the better of Libertad 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Nacional Asuncion made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Nacional Asuncion had 49% of the ball to Libertad's 51%, shots finished 13-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 1.83 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad?

Nacional Asuncion 3-1 Libertad in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional Asuncion vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Nacional Asuncion 36%, draw 27%, Libertad 37%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Libertad) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ BTTS Yes
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