Lech Poznan 2-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 28 Sep 2025

Lech Poznan
2-2 HT 0-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
25%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.72
6+ Goals
13%
7.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.54
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
10%
12.6
X/1
20%
4.89
X/2
5%
7.82
X/X
11%
5.67
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.0
2/2
15%
5.24
2/X
7%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.0 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.2pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.6pp
25%
Away Win
27%
-2.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-6.8pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lech Poznan v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +18%
1.59/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.56
+5% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
380 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 77%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
20.0 Crosses 16.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.68 xG 0.93
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
378 Passes 281
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.03.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
14.09.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 5-0 HT 2-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
17.02.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
24.10.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-3 HT 2-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
27.05.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
12.11.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL

Lech Poznan 2-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
2-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.66 xG 0.86
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 10
331 Passes 290
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 28
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan and Jagiellonia Bialystok shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lech Poznan at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 53% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 47%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.66 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Lech Poznan and 1.17 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Lech Poznan 2-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 47%, draw 28%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 25%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lech Poznan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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