Legia Varşova 1-0 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.53
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.63
6+ Goals
11%
6.71
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.87
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.0
X/1
15%
4.22
X/2
7%
11.4
X/X
7%
6.7
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.4
2/2
9%
8.44
2/X
7%
16.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.4 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
61%
+0.2pp
19%
Draw
21%
-2.3pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.9pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +6%
2.07/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.54
+15% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +42%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
442 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
23.3 Crosses 14.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.42 xG 1.04
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
368 Passes 291
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.05.2025 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-4 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK
28.03.2025 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.09.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
02.03.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
27.09.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-4 HT 1-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
07.05.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
1-0
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.87 xG 0.46
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
334 Passes 261
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova edged past Pogon Szczecin 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 55% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 45%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.87 to 0.46 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Legia Varşova's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.67 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Pogon Szczecin?

Legia Varşova 1-0 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 61%, draw 19%, Pogon Szczecin 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
28 Sep 2025
13:15 Widzew Lodz vs Rakow Czestochowa Analysis →
15:45 Lech Poznan vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Analysis →