Keçiörengücü 3-1 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 28 Dec 2025

📅28/12/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.93
2-3 Goals
35%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.06
6+ Goals
9%
9.77
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.93 — our 34% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.88
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.85
X/1
22%
4.09
X/2
7%
12.2
X/X
14%
6.1
2/1
8%
21.8
2/2
9%
9.86
2/X
5%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-6.5pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.5pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.5pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 20%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.69/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.69
+23% / +43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
17.9 Crosses 14.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keçiörengücü
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.25 xG 1.52
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
271 Passes 369
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
20.04.2025 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 0-1 HT 0-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
15.12.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-2 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
28.04.2024 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 4-2 HT 4-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
09.12.2023 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-0 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
19.04.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-1 HT 2-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
28.11.2021 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-2 HT 1-2 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Keçiörengücü
3-1
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.30 xG 0.83
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
284 Passes 399
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
17 Box Touches 8
9 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keçiörengücü saw off Ümraniyespor 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Keçiörengücü as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Keçiörengücü had 43% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 57%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.30 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Keçiörengücü and 1.67 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor?

Keçiörengücü 3-1 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 28/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Keçiörengücü win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Keçiörengücü 56%, draw 24%, Ümraniyespor 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Keçiörengücü) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Keçiörengücü) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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