Aston Villa 4-2 Celtic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 29 Jan 2025

📅29/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.63
6+ Goals
14%
6.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.91
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.7
X/1
18%
4.29
X/2
8%
11.0
X/X
10%
6.77
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.1
2/2
6%
7.95
2/X
4%
16.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.1 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
60%
-2.4pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.3pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+1.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Celtic EU Bookmakers 22%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.24/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.48/3.10
-5% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -60%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 79%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
11.0 Crosses 6.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aston Villa
4-2
AWAY Celtic
3.97 xG 0.83
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
450 Passes 311
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
39 Box Touches 10
10 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH Aston Villa vs Celtic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa beat Celtic 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Aston Villa had 58% of the ball to Celtic's 42%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 3.97 to 0.83.

What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Celtic?

Aston Villa 4-2 Celtic in the Champions League on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Celtic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 57%, draw 23%, Celtic 20%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aston Villa) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ŞMP More Champions League
29 Jan 2025
23:00 Juventus vs Benfica Analysis →
23:00 Sporting CP vs Bologna Analysis →
23:00 Lille vs Feyenoord Analysis →
23:00 Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk Analysis →
23:00 Manchester City vs Club Brugge Analysis →
23:00 Brest vs Real Madrid Analysis →