Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Borussia Dortmund v Shakhtar Donetsk — Team-Based Signals
Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Shakhtar Donetsk
ŞMP
2-2
HT 1-1
Borussia Dortmund
ŞMP
Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk — Actual Match Statistics
Borussia Dortmund saw off Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (60%) came in.
On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 45% of the ball to Shakhtar Donetsk's 55%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.43 to 0.38.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.00 for Shakhtar Donetsk.
What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 55%, draw 23%, Shakhtar Donetsk 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.