Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 29 Jan 2025

📅29/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.89
Over 2.5
62%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.56
No
40%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.43
2-3 Goals
39%
2.13
4-5 Goals
29%
2.43
6+ Goals
14%
4.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.63
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.95
X/1
16%
4.16
X/2
8%
14.4
X/X
12%
8.41
2/1
6%
17.85
2/2
9%
10.35
2/X
5%
18.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.7pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.4pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
31%
+6.9pp
62%
Over 2.5
69%
-6.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.1pp
40%
BTTS No
40%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +24%
1.84/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.83
+69% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / +0%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
479 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
13.8 Crosses 8.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
05.03.2013 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-0 HT 2-0 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk ŞMP
13.02.2013 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 2-2 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3-1
AWAY Shakhtar Donetsk
2.43 xG 0.38
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
372 Passes 461
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund saw off Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 45% of the ball to Shakhtar Donetsk's 55%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.43 to 0.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.00 for Shakhtar Donetsk.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 55%, draw 23%, Shakhtar Donetsk 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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