Salzburg 1-4 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 29 Jan 2025

📅29/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.34
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
53%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
10.5
1/2
6%
22.1
1/X
6%
18.8
X/1
9%
12.6
X/2
17%
3.92
X/X
15%
5.99
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.8
2/X
5%
16.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
16%
+5.5pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.5pp
53%
Away Win
63%
-9.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salzburg EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 67%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.29/2.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.30/0.71
-12% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -3%
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
233 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 464 · 84%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
13.0 Crosses 18.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salzburg
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.65 xG 1.15
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
423 Passes 275
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.07.2021 Salzburg Salzburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid HAZ
09.12.2020 Salzburg Salzburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid ŞMP
27.10.2020 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-2 HT 1-1 Salzburg Salzburg ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salzburg
1-4
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.62 xG 2.13
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
469 Passes 465
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 35
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid ran out comfortable winners over Salzburg 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Salzburg had 50% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 50%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.62 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Salzburg and 1.67 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid?

Salzburg 1-4 Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Salzburg 21%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 53%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5
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