Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Sparta Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 29 Jan 2025

📅29/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.16
Draw
20%
7.13
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.14
Over 2.5
60%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
7.27
2-3 Goals
38%
2.23
4-5 Goals
27%
2.36
6+ Goals
14%
4.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.22
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
31.0
X/1
18%
3.91
X/2
7%
34.5
X/X
7%
12.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.55
2/2
4%
30.5
2/X
6%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
82%
-17.7pp
20%
Draw
11%
+8.5pp
16%
Away Win
7%
+9.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
28%
+11.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
72%
-11.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 9%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
4.13/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.87
+65% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -23%
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
543 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
46.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
16.3 Crosses 9.8
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
17 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
06.12.2007 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-0
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.68 xG 0.73
71% Ball Possession 29%
26 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 2
709 Passes 249
93% Pass Accuracy 80%
57 Box Touches 17
32 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen saw off Sparta Prag 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 71% of the ball to Sparta Prag's 29%, shots finished 26-12, expected goals 1.68 to 0.73.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Prag?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Sparta Prag in the Champions League on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 64%, draw 20%, Sparta Prag 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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