Girona 1-2 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 29 Jan 2025

📅29/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.71
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
55%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.13
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.5
6+ Goals
10%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 28% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
9.41
1/2
12%
23.4
1/X
8%
18.15
X/1
9%
10.95
X/2
16%
3.9
X/X
7%
5.31
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
27%
1.97
2/X
7%
16.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
18%
+4.6pp
22%
Draw
23%
-1.3pp
55%
Away Win
58%
-3.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.2pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -33%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / -31%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
Crosses 14.4
Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
1-2
AWAY Arsenal
0.74 xG 2.12
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 13
261 Passes 407
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 41
12 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Girona vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal edged past Girona 2-1 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Girona had 39% of the ball to Arsenal's 61%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.74 to 2.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arsenal's control.

What was the final score of Girona vs Arsenal?

Girona 1-2 Arsenal in the Champions League on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Girona 23%, draw 22%, Arsenal 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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