Girona vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Girona v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals
Girona 1-2 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics
Arsenal edged past Girona 2-1 away from home.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Girona had 39% of the ball to Arsenal's 61%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.74 to 2.12 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arsenal's control.
What was the final score of Girona vs Arsenal?
Girona 1-2 Arsenal in the Champions League on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Girona vs Arsenal?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Girona 23%, draw 22%, Arsenal 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.