PSV Eindhoven 3-2 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 29 Jan 2025

PSV Eindhoven
3-2 HT 3-2
Liverpool
📅29/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Champions League – 2024/2025

PSV Eindhoven vs Liverpool Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.41
No
40%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.39
2-3 Goals
38%
2.0
4-5 Goals
27%
2.57
6+ Goals
13%
5.97
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.09
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
8%
11.65
X/1
10%
5.79
X/2
14%
6.8
X/X
12%
5.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.7
2/2
14%
3.96
2/X
9%
11.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.7 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.4pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.0pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.6pp
60%
BTTS Yes
67%
-7.0pp
40%
BTTS No
33%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSV Eindhoven v Liverpool — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.41/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.70
+15% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
398 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
22.4 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.0

PSV Eindhoven vs Liverpool Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSV Eindhoven
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Liverpool
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
The Meetings
09.12.2008 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1-3 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool ŞMP
01.10.2008 Liverpool Liverpool 3-1 HT 2-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven ŞMP
11.04.2007 Liverpool Liverpool 1-0 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven ŞMP
03.04.2007 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 0-3 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool ŞMP
22.11.2006 Liverpool Liverpool 2-0 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven ŞMP
12.09.2006 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 0-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool ŞMP

PSV Eindhoven 3-2 Liverpool — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSV Eindhoven
3-2
AWAY Liverpool
1.32 xG 1.61
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
432 Passes 385
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PSV Eindhoven vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven edged past Liverpool 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; PSV Eindhoven found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSV Eindhoven had 53% of the ball to Liverpool's 47%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.32 to 1.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for PSV Eindhoven and 2.00 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of PSV Eindhoven vs Liverpool?

PSV Eindhoven 3-2 Liverpool in the Champions League on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSV Eindhoven vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split PSV Eindhoven 36%, draw 29%, Liverpool 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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