Sturm Graz 1-0 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 29 Jan 2025

📅29/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.32
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
41%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.33
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.82
6+ Goals
11%
8.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.62
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.15
1/X
5%
13.55
X/1
15%
8.15
X/2
10%
4.79
X/X
9%
5.55
2/1
5%
33.5
2/2
22%
2.46
2/X
9%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.15 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
26%
+9.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
42%
Away Win
49%
-7.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.8pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 54%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
0.95/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.47/0.83
-12% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +91% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 79%
14.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
12.6 Crosses 14.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
1-0
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.27 xG 1.54
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
209 Passes 341
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
11 Box Touches 27
7 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz squeezed past RB Leipzig 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was RB Leipzig at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 40% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 60%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 1.27 to 1.54.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig?

Sturm Graz 1-0 RB Leipzig in the Champions League on 29/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 36%, draw 23%, RB Leipzig 42%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ŞMP More Champions League
29 Jan 2025
23:00 Juventus vs Benfica Analysis →
23:00 Sporting CP vs Bologna Analysis →
23:00 Lille vs Feyenoord Analysis →
23:00 Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk Analysis →
23:00 Manchester City vs Club Brugge Analysis →
23:00 Brest vs Real Madrid Analysis →