Peterborough United 1-3 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 29 Mar 2024

Peterborough United
1-3 HT 0-1
Carlisle United
📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Peterborough United vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.28
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.74
Over 2.5
57%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.35
2-3 Goals
41%
2.11
4-5 Goals
25%
2.53
6+ Goals
12%
5.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.43
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
23.6
X/1
17%
3.59
X/2
5%
21.85
X/X
8%
9.26
2/1
8%
20.9
2/2
6%
15.35
2/X
6%
22.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
74%
-11.9pp
21%
Draw
16%
+5.2pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
33%
+10.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
67%
-10.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Peterborough United v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.86/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.44
+18% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / -6%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
434 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 218 · 66%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
27.3 Crosses 14.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Peterborough United vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Carlisle United
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.03 xG 0.34
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
466 Passes 266
87% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 12
31 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.10.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
08.11.2014 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-1 HT 1-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United FAK
21.04.2014 Peterborough United Peterborough United 4-1 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
29.12.2013 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-1 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
12.03.2011 Peterborough United Peterborough United 6-0 HT 3-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN1
02.10.2010 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1

Peterborough United 1-3 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
1-3
AWAY Carlisle United
2.99 xG 0.96
67% Ball Possession 33%
23 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
460 Passes 174
81% Pass Accuracy 60%
37 Box Touches 18
32 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United saw off Peterborough United 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Peterborough United carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Peterborough United had 67% of the ball to Carlisle United's 33%, shots finished 23-12, expected goals 2.99 to 0.96 — on chances, Peterborough United could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Peterborough United and 0.83 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Carlisle United?

Peterborough United 1-3 Carlisle United in the England - 1st Division on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 62%, draw 21%, Carlisle United 17%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Peterborough United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✓ Over 2.5
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