Colchester 2-1 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
31%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.67
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.29
6+ Goals
12%
11.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.44
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
16%
4.29
X/2
11%
8.17
X/X
11%
5.08
2/1
9%
23.15
2/2
14%
5.99
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-6.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+6.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.3pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colchester EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 28%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +23%
1.57/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.16
+6% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
403 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 71%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
19.6 Crosses 17.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colchester
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Newport County
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.02 xG 1.01
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
249 Passes 180
66% Pass Accuracy 58%
19 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.10.2023 Newport County Newport County 2-1 HT 1-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
01.04.2023 Colchester Colchester 0-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
05.11.2022 Newport County Newport County 2-0 HT 1-0 Colchester Colchester FAK
22.10.2022 Newport County Newport County 1-0 HT 1-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
22.04.2022 Newport County Newport County 1-2 HT 1-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
26.11.2021 Colchester Colchester 1-1 HT 0-1 Newport County Newport County İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colchester
2-1
AWAY Newport County
2.71 xG 0.37
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 1
261 Passes 143
68% Pass Accuracy 54%
33 Box Touches 7
32 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Colchester vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colchester nicked a narrow win over Newport County 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Colchester as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Colchester had 61% of the ball to Newport County's 39%, shots finished 19-3, expected goals 2.71 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Colchester's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newport County led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Colchester and 1.17 for Newport County.

What was the final score of Colchester vs Newport County?

Colchester 2-1 Newport County in the England - 2nd Division on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colchester vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Colchester win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Colchester 44%, draw 25%, Newport County 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Colchester), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Colchester) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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