Winchester City 1-3 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
3.87
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
55%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
11%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
22%
-3.7pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.5pp
56%
Away Win
55%
+0.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Winchester City EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 60%
+13% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.40/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.33/1.38
+18% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
279 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Winchester City
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Merthyr Town
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
24.09.2024 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 3-1 HT 3-0 Winchester City Winchester City İNGNLP
16.04.2024 Winchester City Winchester City 2-0 HT 2-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
24.10.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Winchester City Winchester City İNGNLP
04.02.2023 Winchester City Winchester City 2-2 HT 0-2 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
27.09.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 5-2 HT 4-1 Winchester City Winchester City İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Winchester City vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town got the better of Winchester City 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As we said in the preview, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Winchester City and 2.20 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Winchester City vs Merthyr Town?

Winchester City 1-3 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Winchester City vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Winchester City 19%, draw 26%, Merthyr Town 56%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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