Uniao Santarem 1-2 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.4pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.9pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.4pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao Santarem EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 30%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +15%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.99
-22% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 205 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao Santarem
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-1 HT 0-0 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
25.01.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 3-1 HT 1-0 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem POR3
26.10.2024 Uniao Santarem Uniao Santarem 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao Santarem
1-2
AWAY Sporting Covilha
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Uniao Santarem vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha edged past Uniao Santarem 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Uniao Santarem at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Uniao Santarem had 55% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 45%, shots finished 9-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Uniao Santarem and 1.33 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Uniao Santarem vs Sporting Covilha?

Uniao Santarem 1-2 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao Santarem vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao Santarem win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Uniao Santarem 43%, draw 31%, Sporting Covilha 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Uniao Santarem) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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