Chernomorets 1-1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.67
Over 2.5
50%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.51
No
54%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
67%
-11.6pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.0pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+10.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
36%
+10.5pp
54%
BTTS No
64%
-10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chernomorets EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Alaniya Vladikavkaz EU Bookmakers 14%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.03/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/2.59
+25% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -35%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chernomorets
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Alaniya Vladikavkaz Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2-0 HT 1-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
31.03.2024 Alaniya Vladikavkaz Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1-2 HT 1-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
17.07.2023 Chernomorets Chernomorets 1-1 HT 0-0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz Alaniya Vladikavkaz RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chernomorets
1-1
AWAY Alaniya Vladikavkaz
64% Ball Possession 36%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chernomorets vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chernomorets and Alaniya Vladikavkaz couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Chernomorets at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Chernomorets had 64% of the ball to Alaniya Vladikavkaz's 36%, shots finished 10-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Chernomorets and 1.33 for Alaniya Vladikavkaz.

What was the final score of Chernomorets vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz?

Chernomorets 1-1 Alaniya Vladikavkaz in the Russia - FNL on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chernomorets vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chernomorets win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Chernomorets 55%, draw 23%, Alaniya Vladikavkaz 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Chernomorets) ✗ BTTS No
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