Dinamo Moscow 5-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.45
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.59
Over 2.5
58%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.87
2-3 Goals
37%
2.1
4-5 Goals
28%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.74
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
5%
16.15
X/1
18%
4.23
X/2
7%
13.35
X/X
10%
7.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
19.0
2/2
7%
9.81
2/X
5%
18.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.0 — our 7% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
64%
-3.4pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.0pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
35%
+7.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
65%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 20%
-6% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
1.85/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.84
+6% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
19.3 Crosses 16.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.61 xG 1.73
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
306 Passes 341
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 1-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
24.04.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
17.04.2024 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-4 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUSK
08.02.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 4-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg HAZ
12.11.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
03.06.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 3-0 HT 2-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
5-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.30 xG 0.95
56% Ball Possession 44%
22 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
352 Passes 260
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 30
11 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow cruised past FK Orenburg 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Moscow as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 56% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 44%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 2.30 to 0.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Moscow had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.50 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs FK Orenburg?

Dinamo Moscow 5-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 61%, draw 21%, FK Orenburg 19%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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