Samsunspor 0-2 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 29 Mar 2025

📅29/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
24%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.41
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.37
6+ Goals
12%
12.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.77
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
21%
4.84
X/2
6%
7.52
X/X
13%
4.87
2/1
8%
24.2
2/2
12%
5.48
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.8
Value flag · 2/X at 13.8 — our 12% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.4pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.6pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-2.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
1.39/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.82
+1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
18.2 Crosses 18.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samsunspor
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.85 xG 1.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
253 Passes 279
68% Pass Accuracy 69%
21 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-4 HT 1-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
27.04.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-0 HT 1-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
09.12.2023 Samsunspor Samsunspor 4-2 HT 2-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
19.04.2009 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-1 HT 1-1 Samsunspor Samsunspor T1L
29.11.2008 Samsunspor Samsunspor 2-1 HT 0-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa T1L
18.02.2007 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-1 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samsunspor
0-2
AWAY Kasımpaşa
0.77 xG 1.29
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
477 Passes 188
83% Pass Accuracy 70%
17 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kasımpaşa saw off Samsunspor 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Samsunspor at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Samsunspor had 68% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 32%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 0.77 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Samsunspor had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Samsunspor and 1.17 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?

Samsunspor 0-2 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 29/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samsunspor vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Samsunspor win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Samsunspor 45%, draw 31%, Kasımpaşa 24%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Samsunspor), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Samsunspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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