FS Jelgava 1-0 Grobina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 29 Apr 2025

📅29/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
31%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
59%
-6.8pp
29%
Draw
23%
+6.1pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Grobina EU Bookmakers 21%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.45/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.58
+11% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / -14%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
406 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 77%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
30.4 Crosses 23.5
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Grobina
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
1.45 xG 1.11
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
250 Passes 294
72% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.03.2025 Grobina Grobina 1-1 HT 0-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
09.11.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 0-0 Grobina Grobina LET
23.08.2024 Grobina Grobina 2-3 HT 1-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
16.06.2024 Grobina Grobina 4-2 HT 1-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
28.04.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 1-1 Grobina Grobina LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
1-0
AWAY Grobina
1.50 xG 0.47
56% Ball Possession 44%
23 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
394 Passes 263
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
39 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs Grobina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FS Jelgava edged past Grobina 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FS Jelgava as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 56% of the ball to Grobina's 44%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 1.50 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FS Jelgava and 1.60 for Grobina.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs Grobina?

FS Jelgava 1-0 Grobina in the Latvia - Virsliga on 29/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs Grobina?

Before kick-off our model rated a FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 52%, draw 29%, Grobina 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FS Jelgava), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FS Jelgava) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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