San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
San Jose Earthquakes v Minnesota United — Team-Based Signals
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
San Jose Earthquakes
ABD
1-1
HT 1-1
Minnesota United
ABD
San Jose Earthquakes 4-2 Minnesota United — Actual Match Statistics
San Jose Earthquakes saw off Minnesota United 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had San Jose Earthquakes as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, San Jose Earthquakes had 42% of the ball to Minnesota United's 58%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 1.32 to 1.92 — on chances, Minnesota United could feel hard done by.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Minnesota United led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.83 for Minnesota United.
What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?
San Jose Earthquakes 4-2 Minnesota United in the USA - Open Cup on 29/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?
Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 51%, draw 21%, Minnesota United 28%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.