Minnesota United 4-1 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 13 Jul 2025

📅13/07/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-7.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.0pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
1.69/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.66
-1% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
349 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 82%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
20.2 Crosses 16.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minnesota United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.81 xG 1.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
317 Passes 388
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2025 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 HT 0-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
01.09.2024 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 HT 1-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
21.07.2024 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-0 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
01.10.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-1 HT 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
03.09.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
02.10.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-0 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
4-1
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
2.83 xG 1.20
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
172 Passes 357
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 30
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United swept aside San Jose Earthquakes 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Minnesota United as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Minnesota United had 36% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 64%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 2.83 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Minnesota United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Minnesota United and 0.83 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Minnesota United 4-1 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 43%, draw 26%, San Jose Earthquakes 32%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Minnesota United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
13 Jul 2025
02:30 Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Analysis →
02:30 Orlando City vs CF Montreal Analysis →
02:30 Toronto FC vs Atlanta United Analysis →
02:45 Inter Miami vs Nashville SC Analysis →
03:30 Chicago Fire vs San Diego Analysis →
03:30 Sporting Kansas City vs Seattle Sounders Analysis →