San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Minnesota United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.43
No
44%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.38
2-3 Goals
37%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.02
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
26.0
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
9%
5.44
X/2
14%
6.51
X/X
13%
5.81
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2
16%
3.88
2/X
7%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.2pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+3.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.1pp
44%
BTTS No
34%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 37%
-5% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -19%
1.57/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.35
-8% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -26%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 82%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
21.5 Crosses 19.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Minnesota United
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.13 xG 1.57
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
336 Passes 344
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.07.2024 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-0 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
01.10.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-1 HT 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
03.09.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
02.10.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-0 HT 0-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
20.03.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-0 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
18.08.2021 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
1-2
AWAY Minnesota United
0.58 xG 2.05
53% Ball Possession 47%
5 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
372 Passes 305
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United nicked a narrow win over San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Minnesota United made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, San Jose Earthquakes had 53% of the ball to Minnesota United's 47%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 0.58 to 2.05 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Minnesota United's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Minnesota United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.00 for Minnesota United.

What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?

San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Minnesota United in the USA - Major League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 38%, draw 25%, Minnesota United 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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