FC Cincinnati 4-1 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.59
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.66
No
43%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.81
2-3 Goals
39%
2.04
4-5 Goals
27%
2.6
6+ Goals
14%
5.98
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.64
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.3
X/1
16%
3.77
X/2
8%
15.15
X/X
10%
7.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.75
2/2
10%
10.55
2/X
6%
18.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.75 — our 13% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
68%
-12.8pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.6pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+9.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.2pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
2.19/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.84
+12% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
13.7 Crosses 14.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
1W-2D-3L
AWAY CF Montreal
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.45 xG 1.19
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
347 Passes 388
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-1 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
21.09.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
18.05.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-0 HT 2-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
29.05.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 4-3 HT 2-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
02.04.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 3-4 HT 2-3 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
19.08.2021 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-0 HT 0-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
4-1
AWAY CF Montreal
1.03 xG 1.06
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
491 Passes 359
90% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 5
19 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati ran out comfortable winners over CF Montreal 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 55% of the ball to CF Montreal's 45%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.03 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CF Montreal led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.83 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs CF Montreal?

FC Cincinnati 4-1 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 55%, draw 22%, CF Montreal 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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