Libertad 2-3 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 29 Apr 2026

📅29/04/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.49
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
4.39
6+ Goals
9%
23.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.91
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
12%
5.53
X/2
14%
5.7
X/X
15%
3.8
2/1
8%
33.0
2/2
16%
4.1
2/X
7%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-2.2pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.3pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.7pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 37%
+11% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.38/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.50
+23% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -80% / +21%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
314 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
15.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
11.1 Crosses 18.5
3.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.01 xG 1.55
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
223 Passes 346
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 1-1 Libertad Libertad EKV1
04.11.2025 Libertad Libertad 1-3 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
14.06.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
16.02.2025 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
21.09.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
07.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-3
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.13 xG 0.81
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 6
280 Passes 366
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle edged past Libertad 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (34% / 31% / 35%) promised a tight game; Independiente Del Valle found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Libertad had 44% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 56%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.13 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Libertad and 1.50 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle?

Libertad 2-3 Independiente Del Valle in the Copa Libertadores on 29/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Libertad 34%, draw 31%, Independiente Del Valle 35%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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