FC Cincinnati 3-3 FC Dallas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 May 2025

📅29/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
30%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.23
Over 2.5
48%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.41
2-3 Goals
36%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.77
6+ Goals
10%
7.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.41 — our 29% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
57%
-11.8pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
30%
Away Win
19%
+10.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.4pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 22%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +19%
1.76/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.54
-10% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
414 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 80%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
13.9 Crosses 12.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Cincinnati
1W-0D-1L
AWAY FC Dallas
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.08 xG 1.69
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 7
312 Passes 444
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 21
4 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
30.06.2024 FC Dallas FC Dallas 0-1 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
01.09.2019 FC Dallas FC Dallas 3-1 HT 1-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Cincinnati
3-3
AWAY FC Dallas
2.54 xG 1.28
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
530 Passes 272
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
37 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Cincinnati vs FC Dallas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati and FC Dallas couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was FC Cincinnati at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, FC Cincinnati had 63% of the ball to FC Dallas's 37%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 2.54 to 1.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Cincinnati and 1.50 for FC Dallas.

What was the final score of FC Cincinnati vs FC Dallas?

FC Cincinnati 3-3 FC Dallas in the USA - Major League on 29/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Cincinnati vs FC Dallas?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FC Cincinnati 45%, draw 25%, FC Dallas 30%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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