New York Red Bulls 4-2 Charlotte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 May 2025

📅29/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
11.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 26% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.12
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
12%
5.17
X/2
12%
6.63
X/X
11%
5.06
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.65
2/2
10%
4.55
2/X
7%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.65 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+2.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-2.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.6pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -1%
1.56/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.65
+8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
17.8 Crosses 13.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York Red Bulls
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Charlotte
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.31 xG 0.79
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
234 Passes 382
65% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
25.08.2024 Charlotte Charlotte 1-1 HT 1-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
30.05.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-1 HT 0-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
26.10.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 5-2 HT 3-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
22.06.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-2 HT 0-2 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
26.03.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 1-1 HT 0-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
09.10.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-0 HT 1-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York Red Bulls
4-2
AWAY Charlotte
2.15 xG 1.91
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
379 Passes 590
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
20 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York Red Bulls beat Charlotte 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had New York Red Bulls as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, New York Red Bulls had 41% of the ball to Charlotte's 59%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.15 to 1.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for New York Red Bulls and 1.17 for Charlotte.

What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte?

New York Red Bulls 4-2 Charlotte in the USA - Major League on 29/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 46%, draw 26%, Charlotte 29%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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