Toronto FC 1-2 Philadelphia Union — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 May 2025

📅29/05/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.5
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
47%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.73
No
56%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.35
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.28
6+ Goals
11%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 31% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
25%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
47%
Away Win
49%
-2.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
54%
-9.3pp
56%
BTTS No
46%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 54%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.06/1.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.76/1.66
-21% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +96% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
346 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 82%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.9
13.6 Crosses 24.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.99 xG 1.70
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
426 Passes 311
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.07.2024 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 0-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
30.05.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
31.08.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
23.04.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-2 HT 3-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
09.10.2022 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-0 HT 2-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
17.04.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 2-1 HT 1-1 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-2
AWAY Philadelphia Union
1.09 xG 1.36
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
184 Passes 256
67% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union edged past Toronto FC 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Philadelphia Union as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Toronto FC had 42% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 58%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 1.09 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toronto FC had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Toronto FC and 1.83 for Philadelphia Union.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Toronto FC 1-2 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 29/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Before kick-off our model rated an Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 29%, draw 24%, Philadelphia Union 47%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Philadelphia Union) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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