Orlando City 1-2 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 Jun 2025

📅29/06/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.72
6+ Goals
12%
7.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.43
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
12%
4.85
X/2
11%
8.51
X/X
11%
5.85
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.85
2/2
11%
5.79
2/X
10%
13.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.85 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
51%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+3.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.3pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orlando City EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +6%
1.61/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.67
-5% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 80%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
19.8 Crosses 10.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orlando City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Cincinnati
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.98 xG 1.14
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
376 Passes 400
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-3 HT 1-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
05.05.2024 Orlando City Orlando City 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
03.09.2023 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 0-1 HT 0-1 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
05.03.2023 Orlando City Orlando City 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
25.06.2022 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 1-0 HT 0-0 Orlando City Orlando City ABD
13.03.2022 Orlando City Orlando City 1-2 HT 1-1 FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orlando City
1-2
AWAY FC Cincinnati
2.19 xG 0.57
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
481 Passes 314
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati nicked a narrow win over Orlando City 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Orlando City at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Orlando City had 59% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 41%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.19 to 0.57 — on chances, Orlando City could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Cincinnati led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Orlando City and 0.83 for FC Cincinnati.

What was the final score of Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati?

Orlando City 1-2 FC Cincinnati in the USA - Major League on 29/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Orlando City 43%, draw 28%, FC Cincinnati 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Orlando City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orlando City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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