AIK 1-0 Hammarby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 29 Sep 2024

AIK
1-0 HT 0-0
Hammarby
📅29/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.09
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.59
Over 2.5
37%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.96
6+ Goals
7%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.05
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.1
X/1
11%
4.42
X/2
10%
6.74
X/X
20%
3.8
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
14%
5.53
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
44%
-6.4pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.4pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.9pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.4pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.9pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AIK EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Hammarby EU Bookmakers 30%
+10% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.87/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.36
-6% / +99% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +31%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
22.1 Crosses 20.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AIK
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Hammarby
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.27 xG 1.12
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 460
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2024 Hammarby Hammarby 2-1 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
03.09.2023 Hammarby Hammarby 4-2 HT 1-1 AIK AIK İSÇ
16.04.2023 AIK AIK 2-0 HT 1-0 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
13.03.2023 Hammarby Hammarby 2-1 HT 1-1 AIK AIK İSÇK
28.08.2022 AIK AIK 2-2 HT 1-1 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
15.05.2022 Hammarby Hammarby 3-3 HT 2-1 AIK AIK İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AIK
1-0
AWAY Hammarby
1.48 xG 0.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
278 Passes 298
71% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AIK vs Hammarby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AIK squeezed past Hammarby 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 32% / 31% — and on the day AIK made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, AIK had 48% of the ball to Hammarby's 52%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 1.48 to 0.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold AIK's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hammarby led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for AIK and 2.17 for Hammarby.

What was the final score of AIK vs Hammarby?

AIK 1-0 Hammarby in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AIK vs Hammarby?

Before kick-off our model rated a AIK win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split AIK 38%, draw 32%, Hammarby 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AIK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AIK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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