Fylkir 1-3 KA Akureyri — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
45%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.51
Over 2.5
51%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.43
No
50%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
5.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.99
4-5 Goals
24%
2.68
6+ Goals
10%
6.64
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.35 — our 25% vs market 14.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
34%
-2.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
45%
Away Win
42%
+3.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
36%
+12.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
64%
-12.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
66%
-15.3pp
50%
BTTS No
34%
+15.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fylkir EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY KA Akureyri EU Bookmakers 46%
+12% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.43/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.26
+34% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
290 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 80%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.7
18.3 Crosses 29.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fylkir
0W-3D-3L
AWAY KA Akureyri
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.50 xG 1.71
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
319 Passes 359
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 29
25 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2024 Fylkir Fylkir 1-1 HT 0-0 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZL
20.05.2024 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 4-2 HT 3-0 Fylkir Fylkir İZL
24.09.2023 Fylkir Fylkir 2-4 HT 1-2 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZL
03.09.2023 Fylkir Fylkir 1-1 HT 0-1 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZL
10.06.2023 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri 2-1 HT 1-0 Fylkir Fylkir İZL
02.03.2022 Fylkir Fylkir 2-2 HT 1-0 KA Akureyri KA Akureyri İZLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fylkir
1-3
AWAY KA Akureyri
1.90 xG 2.56
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
343 Passes 292
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fylkir vs KA Akureyri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KA Akureyri saw off Fylkir 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had KA Akureyri as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fylkir had 54% of the ball to KA Akureyri's 46%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 1.90 to 2.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KA Akureyri led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fylkir and 2.33 for KA Akureyri.

What was the final score of Fylkir vs KA Akureyri?

Fylkir 1-3 KA Akureyri in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fylkir vs KA Akureyri?

Before kick-off our model rated an KA Akureyri win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fylkir 31%, draw 23%, KA Akureyri 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KA Akureyri), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (KA Akureyri) ✓ Over 2.5
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