HJK Helsinki 2-2 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 29 Sep 2025

📅29/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.12
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.63
Over 2.5
62%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.39
No
38%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.24
2-3 Goals
35%
2.13
4-5 Goals
29%
2.58
6+ Goals
14%
5.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.98
1/2
8%
24.3
1/X
4%
12.15
X/1 EV+ ✗
26%
5.71
X/2
11%
6.82
X/X
7%
6.25
2/1
6%
20.85
2/2
11%
3.91
2/X
9%
12.4
Value flag · X/1 at 5.71 — our 26% vs market 13.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
43%
+7.3pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.0pp
29%
Away Win
33%
-4.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
34%
+3.5pp
62%
Over 2.5
66%
-3.5pp
62%
BTTS Yes
68%
-5.8pp
38%
BTTS No
32%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +4%
1.33/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.28
-15% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
334 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 82%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
19.4 Crosses 14.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.27 xG 1.31
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
405 Passes 378
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.08.2025 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 5-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
05.04.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-2 HT 1-2 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
28.09.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 0-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
06.07.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-0 HT 2-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
25.05.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-1 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
22.07.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
2-2
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.15 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
528 Passes 490
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
27 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki and Ilves Tampere shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was HJK Helsinki at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 52% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 48%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.15 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for HJK Helsinki and 1.50 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere?

HJK Helsinki 2-2 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 50%, draw 21%, Ilves Tampere 29%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (HJK Helsinki) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →