Gubbio 1-3 Vis Pesaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
34%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
14%
5.68
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-5.1pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.1pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+5.4pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+1.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-1.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.6pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gubbio EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Vis Pesaro EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
1.33/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.10
+9% / +89% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gubbio
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vis Pesaro
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.02.2024 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 1-3 HT 1-2 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
23.09.2023 Gubbio Gubbio 1-0 HT 1-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
01.04.2023 Gubbio Gubbio 3-0 HT 1-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
29.11.2022 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 0-4 HT 0-3 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
06.03.2022 Gubbio Gubbio 3-0 HT 2-0 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro İTC
23.10.2021 Vis Pesaro Vis Pesaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gubbio
1-3
AWAY Vis Pesaro
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gubbio vs Vis Pesaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vis Pesaro got the better of Gubbio 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 34%) promised a tight game; Vis Pesaro found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gubbio had 42% of the ball to Vis Pesaro's 58%, shots finished 7-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gubbio had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Gubbio and 0.33 for Vis Pesaro.

What was the final score of Gubbio vs Vis Pesaro?

Gubbio 1-3 Vis Pesaro in the Italy - Serie C on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gubbio vs Vis Pesaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gubbio win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Gubbio 35%, draw 31%, Vis Pesaro 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gubbio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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