Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-3 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 29 Oct 2025

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1-3 HT 1-2
Freiburg
📅29/10/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Germany - DFB Cup – 2025/2026

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.13
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
60%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.39
2-3 Goals
46%
1.82
4-5 Goals
17%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
7.7
1/2
5%
23.55
1/X
5%
15.75
X/1
6%
9.55
X/2
20%
4.25
X/X
10%
5.02
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
35%
2.22
2/X
7%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
21%
-2.9pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.1pp
60%
Away Win
54%
+6.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 58%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.21/1.45
-100% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -26%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
252 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 406 · 81%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.7
21.0 Crosses 23.2
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Freiburg
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.42 xG 1.23
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 Passes 358
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
22.02.2020 Freiburg Freiburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL1
29.09.2019 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
05.05.2019 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL1
15.12.2018 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
14.02.2016 Freiburg Freiburg 1-2 HT 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
22.08.2015 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 HT 1-2 Freiburg Freiburg AL2

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-3 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
1-3
AWAY Freiburg
1.64 xG 1.78
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 3
414 Passes 243
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
27 Box Touches 33
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Fortuna Düsseldorf had 61% of the ball to Freiburg's 39%, shots finished 19-19, expected goals 1.64 to 1.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Düsseldorf had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.00 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg?

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-3 Freiburg in the Germany - DFB Cup on 29/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Düsseldorf 18%, draw 22%, Freiburg 60%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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