Union Berlin 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 29 Oct 2025

📅29/10/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
30%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
3.26
6+ Goals
11%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 24% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.14
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.55
X/1
16%
4.22
X/2
8%
9.68
X/X
12%
5.59
2/1
7%
21.75
2/2
13%
7.55
2/X
7%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-10.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.0pp
30%
Away Win
20%
+9.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 24%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
2.00/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.03
+0% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
367 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 74%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
31.6 Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.51 xG 0.67
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
470 Passes 308
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
30.10.2024 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AFK
06.01.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld HAZ
19.02.2022 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
25.09.2021 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL1
07.03.2021 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
07.11.2020 Union Berlin Union Berlin 5-0 HT 3-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
2-1
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
2.15 xG 2.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
29 Total Shots 20
11 Shots on Target 7
11 Corners 4
466 Passes 393
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
46 Box Touches 32
50 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin nicked a narrow win over Arminia Bielefeld 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Union Berlin as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 54% of the ball to Arminia Bielefeld's 46%, shots finished 29-20, expected goals 2.15 to 2.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Union Berlin and 0.50 for Arminia Bielefeld.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Union Berlin 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld in the Germany - DFB Cup on 29/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 45%, draw 24%, Arminia Bielefeld 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Berlin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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