Paderborn 2-4 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 29 Oct 2025

Paderborn
2-4 HT 0-0
Bayer Leverkusen
📅29/10/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - DFB Cup – 2025/2026

Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
3.69
Draw
16%
3.72
Away
68%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.29
Over 2.5
64%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.56
No
41%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.85
2-3 Goals
37%
1.97
4-5 Goals
29%
2.86
6+ Goals
16%
7.77
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
6.39
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
20.25
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
6%
9.07
X/2
22%
4.59
X/X
4%
6.0
2/1
4%
35.0
2/2
34%
2.24
2/X
5%
13.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.25 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
24%
-7.6pp
16%
Draw
23%
-7.0pp
68%
Away Win
53%
+14.6pp
36%
Under 2.5
40%
-4.2pp
64%
Over 2.5
60%
+4.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.5pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paderborn v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 57%
-19% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -37% / -37%
1.63/1.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.64
-65% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / -41%
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
296 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 480 · 84%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.0
16.9 Crosses 17.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.26 xG 2.05
36% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
251 Passes 557
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
06.12.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 HT 2-0 Paderborn Paderborn AFK
21.07.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen HAZ
19.01.2020 Paderborn Paderborn 1-4 HT 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
29.10.2019 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 HT 1-0 Paderborn Paderborn AFK
17.08.2019 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 HT 2-2 Paderborn Paderborn AL1
08.03.2015 Paderborn Paderborn 0-3 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

Paderborn 2-4 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
2-4
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.41 xG 3.68
36% Ball Possession 64%
18 Total Shots 29
5 Shots on Target 14
6 Corners 6
354 Passes 727
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
26 Box Touches 39
20 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen beat Paderborn 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Paderborn had 36% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 64%, shots finished 18-29, expected goals 1.41 to 3.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Paderborn and 2.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Paderborn 2-4 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - DFB Cup on 29/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 16%, draw 16%, Bayer Leverkusen 68%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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