Excelsior 2-0 Ajax II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 29 Nov 2024

Excelsior
2-0 HT 2-0
Ajax II
📅29/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Excelsior vs Ajax II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.3
Draw
23%
5.15
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.98
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
7.56
2-3 Goals
37%
2.27
4-5 Goals
27%
2.46
6+ Goals
17%
4.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.52
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
21.1
X/1
14%
3.8
X/2
7%
18.5
X/X
13%
9.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.75
2/2
6%
12.1
2/X
4%
20.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.75 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
72%
-12.9pp
23%
Draw
16%
+6.7pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.3pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Excelsior v Ajax II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax II EU Bookmakers 15%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +4%
2.26/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/2.06
+36% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
356 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 79%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
21.8 Crosses 11.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

Excelsior vs Ajax II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Ajax II
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.51 xG 2.36
38% Ball Possession 62%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
259 Passes 486
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.02.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 6-2 HT 3-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
27.08.2021 Ajax II Ajax II 1-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
01.03.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 5-1 HT 3-0 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
28.09.2020 Ajax II Ajax II 3-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
25.10.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 1-3 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
18.04.2014 Ajax II Ajax II 0-2 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2

Excelsior 2-0 Ajax II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
2-0
AWAY Ajax II
2.09 xG 0.60
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 2
342 Passes 313
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
41 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Ajax II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior beat Ajax II 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Excelsior as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Excelsior had 52% of the ball to Ajax II's 48%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 2.09 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Excelsior had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Excelsior and 1.67 for Ajax II.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Ajax II?

Excelsior 2-0 Ajax II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 29/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Ajax II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 59%, draw 23%, Ajax II 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Excelsior) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Excelsior) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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