Barcelona 3-1 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home OUR CALL
78%
1.3
Draw
14%
5.15
Away
8%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.61
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
21%
5.79
2-3 Goals
39%
2.06
4-5 Goals
28%
2.56
6+ Goals
12%
5.66
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.79 — our 21% vs market 12.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
48%
1.47
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
4%
21.0
X/1
21%
3.99
X/2
3%
20.05
X/X
6%
8.99
2/1
8%
20.45
2/2
3%
16.15
2/X
4%
24.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Barcelona win — 78%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
78%
Home Win
73%
+5.0pp
14%
Draw
16%
-2.8pp
9%
Away Win
11%
-2.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.2pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barcelona EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +8%
2.36/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.57
+28% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +3%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
502 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 77%
38.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
18.3 Crosses 16.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.53 xG 0.83
72% Ball Possession 28%
12 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
608 Passes 171
89% Pass Accuracy 69%
26 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2025 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
06.10.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-3 HT 0-3 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
03.02.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-3 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
12.11.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 2-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
23.01.2022 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 0-1 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
30.10.2021 Barcelona Barcelona 1-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona
3-1
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
2.24 xG 1.67
69% Ball Possession 31%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
622 Passes 231
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Barcelona vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona saw off Deportivo Alaves 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%) came in.

On the day, Barcelona had 69% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 31%, shots finished 18-9, expected goals 2.24 to 1.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Barcelona and 0.50 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Barcelona vs Deportivo Alaves?

Barcelona 3-1 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barcelona vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Barcelona 78%, draw 14%, Deportivo Alaves 9%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5
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