Luzern 1-3 Winterthur — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.43
Draw
17%
4.34
Away
15%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.43
Over 2.5
66%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.7
No
38%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
5.01
2-3 Goals
34%
1.96
4-5 Goals
32%
2.7
6+ Goals
17%
6.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.72
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.6
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
4.14
X/2
7%
13.95
X/X
7%
7.24
2/1
8%
20.05
2/2
4%
10.8
2/X
4%
18.9
Value flag · X/1 at 4.14 — our 27% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
66%
+2.3pp
17%
Draw
20%
-2.9pp
15%
Away Win
15%
+0.6pp
34%
Under 2.5
38%
-4.0pp
66%
Over 2.5
62%
+4.0pp
62%
BTTS Yes
55%
+6.7pp
38%
BTTS No
45%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luzern EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Winterthur EU Bookmakers 18%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.88/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/2.00
-6% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 76%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
23.3 Crosses 13.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luzern
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Winterthur
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.23 xG 1.24
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
345 Passes 340
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
25.10.2025 Winterthur Winterthur 2-2 HT 2-0 Luzern Luzern İSV
09.02.2025 Luzern Luzern 3-2 HT 1-1 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
14.12.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 3-4 HT 3-2 Luzern Luzern İSV
24.08.2024 Luzern Luzern 3-0 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
11.02.2024 Winterthur Winterthur 2-1 HT 0-1 Luzern Luzern İSV
25.11.2023 Luzern Luzern 3-1 HT 1-0 Winterthur Winterthur İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luzern
1-3
AWAY Winterthur
1.96 xG 0.82
67% Ball Possession 33%
26 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 4
480 Passes 194
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
37 Box Touches 21
37 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Luzern vs Winterthur
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Winterthur beat Luzern 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Luzern carried 68% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Luzern had 67% of the ball to Winterthur's 33%, shots finished 26-10, expected goals 1.96 to 0.82 — on chances, Luzern could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Luzern had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Luzern and 1.67 for Winterthur.

What was the final score of Luzern vs Winterthur?

Luzern 1-3 Winterthur in the Switzerland - Super League on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luzern vs Winterthur?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luzern win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Luzern 68%, draw 17%, Winterthur 15%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luzern) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luzern) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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