Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 Giravanz Kitakyushu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.95
Over 2.5
56%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
5%
2/1
5%
2/2
27%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
31%
+3.8pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.0pp
43%
Away Win
43%
+0.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.0pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Giravanz Kitakyushu EU Bookmakers 48%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.13/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.52
-9% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -24%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
306 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.4 Crosses 21.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Giravanz Kitakyushu
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
434 Passes 358
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.04.2025 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu 1-2 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
20.07.2024 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu 0-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
18.05.2024 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 HT 1-0 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu JAP3
05.11.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 0-0 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu JAP3
09.04.2023 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu 2-4 HT 1-2 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
21.08.2022 Giravanz Kitakyushu Giravanz Kitakyushu 0-1 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2-1
AWAY Giravanz Kitakyushu
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
291 Passes 291
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Giravanz Kitakyushu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga edged past Giravanz Kitakyushu 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Giravanz Kitakyushu at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 50% of the ball to Giravanz Kitakyushu's 50%, shots finished 13-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.67 for Giravanz Kitakyushu.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Giravanz Kitakyushu?

Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 Giravanz Kitakyushu in the Japan - J3 League on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Giravanz Kitakyushu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Giravanz Kitakyushu win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 35%, draw 21%, Giravanz Kitakyushu 43%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Giravanz Kitakyushu) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Giravanz Kitakyushu) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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